評論
打印
Finance and economics
財經版塊
Of great interest
利率問題
As inflation cools, the Federal Reserve faces a bigger dilemma.
隨著通脹降溫，美聯儲面臨著更大的兩難境地。
It was never in doubt.
這一點從未被懷疑過。
In the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, investors assigned a probability of nearly 99% to the central bank raising interest rates once again.
在美聯儲最近一次會議召開前夕，投資者認為美聯儲再次加息的可能性接近99%。
On July 26th policymakers duly fulfilled those expectations, with their 11th increase in 12 meetings, together making for America’s sharpest course of monetary tightening in four decades.
7月26日，政策制定者如期實現了這些預期，他們在第12次會議上宣布第11次加息，使之成為美國40年來最嚴格的貨幣緊縮進程。
The central bank’s next steps, however, are clouded by uncertainty.
然而，央行的下一步舉措被不確定性所籠罩。
Some economists are convinced that this will be the Fed’s last rate rise in this cycle.
一些經濟學家確信，這將是美聯儲在本輪周期中的最后一次加息。
Inflation has come down from its highs in 2022, with consumer prices rising by just 3% year-on-year in June.
通貨膨脹率已經從2022年的高點回落，6月份消費者價格同比僅上漲3%。
Core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs—has been a little more stubborn, but even it has started to soften, in a sign that underlying price pressures are easing.
剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心通脹略顯頑固，但就連核心通脹也開始疲軟，這表明潛在的價格壓力正在緩解。
This opens a pathway for the Fed to relent, hopefully guiding America to a much-discussed soft landing.
這為美聯儲打開了一條緩和道路，有望引導美國走向備受討論的軟著陸。
Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects an “extended hold” for the Fed, presaging a rate cut at the start of next year.
摩根士丹利銀行的艾倫·曾特納預計美聯儲將“延長暫停時間”，預示明年年初將會降息。
Others are not so sure.
其他人則不那么確定。
Inflation has consistently wrong-footed optimists over the past couple of years.
過去幾年，通脹一直令樂觀主義者措手不及。
Were, for instance, energy prices to rally, consumers and businesses could quickly revise up their expectations for inflation, nudging the Fed towards another rate increase.
例如，如果能源價格上漲，消費者和企業可能會迅速上調他們對通脹的預期，這將推動美聯儲再一次加息。
If an incipient rebound in housing prices gathers pace, that would also fuel concerns.
如果房價開始反彈的步伐加快，這也會加劇人們的擔憂。
Vigour in the labour market adds to the worries, because fast-rising wages feed into inflation.
勞動力市場的活躍加劇了人們的擔憂，因為快速上漲的工資會加劇通脹。
Remarkably, the Fed’s aggressive actions have barely affected American workers thus far: the unemployment rate today is 3.6%, identical to its level in March 2022 when the Fed raised rates for the first time in this cycle.
值得注意的是，到目前為止，美聯儲的激進行動幾乎沒有影響到美國勞動者：現在的失業率為3.6%，與2022年3月美聯儲在本輪周期中首次加息時的水平相同。
The pace of tightening would normally be expected to drive up unemployment.
緊縮的步伐通常被認為會推高失業率。
Instead, the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, including an increase in the number of willing workers, seems to have cushioned the economy.
相反，新冠肺炎疫情之后的復蘇，包括愿意工作的勞動力數量增加，似乎為經濟提供了緩沖。
Opposing views among economists are mirrored within the Fed itself.
經濟學家之間的觀點對立也反映在美聯儲內部。
For the past two years America’s central bankers have spoken in similar terms about the peril of inflation, and have been nearly unanimous when it comes to big rate moves.
在過去的兩年里，美國的中央銀行官員們在談到通貨膨脹的危險時都用了類似的措辭，而且在利率大幅變動的問題上也幾乎是觀點一致的。
In recent months, however, divisions have surfaced.
然而，近幾個月來，分歧已經顯現。
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, has come to represent the more hawkish voices.
美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒已開始代表更強硬的聲音。
This month he warned that the central bank could continue raising rates until there is sustained improvement in inflation, dismissing the over-optimism bred by the weaker-than-expected price figures for June.
本月，他警告稱，央行可能會繼續加息，直到通脹持續改善，并未理會因6月份低于預期的價格數據而滋生的過度樂觀情緒。
“One data point does not make a trend,” he warned.
他警告說：“一個數據點并不能說明趨勢?！?/p>
At the other end of the spectrum is Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, who said even before the latest rate increase that the central bank could stop hiking.
另一個極端是美聯儲亞特蘭大分行行長拉斐爾·博斯蒂克，他甚至在最近一次加息之前就表示，央行可以停止加息。
“Gradual disinflation will continue,” he assured listeners in late June.
他在6月下旬向聽眾保證：“通脹逐步放緩將持續下去?！?/p>
Even if the latest rate increase does end up marking the peak for the Fed, Jerome Powell, its chairman, has maintained a hawkish tilt in his pronouncements.
即使最近一次加息確實標志美聯儲的加息措施達到頂點，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾依然在他的聲明中保持了強硬傾向。
“What our eyes are telling us is that policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough,” he told a press conference following the rate rise.
他在加息后的新聞發布會上表示：“我們看到的情況告訴我們，政策的抑制力度還不夠大，時間還不夠長?！?/p>
Financial conditions have loosened in recent months.
近幾個月來，金融狀況有所放松。
The S&P 500, an index of America’s biggest stocks, is up nearly one-fifth from its lows in March, when a handful of regional banks collapsed.
標準普爾500指數（美國最大股票的指數）從三月份的低點上漲了近五分之一，三月份時有幾家地區性銀行倒閉。
With his sterner tone, Mr Powell may want to restrain investors from getting ahead of themselves, which could add to inflationary momentum.
鮑威爾的語氣較為嚴厲，他可能希望阻止投資者過早行動，因為這可能會加劇通脹勢頭。
Central bankers wanting to preserve their reputations as inflation-fighters may prefer to err towards toughness.
央行官員們想要維護自己作為通脹斗士的聲譽，他們可能更傾向于采取強硬態度。
Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, likens the Fed to a weather forecaster who thinks there is a 30% chance of rain.
渣打銀行的史蒂文·英格蘭德將美聯儲比作認為有30%的可能性會下雨的天氣預報員。
It still makes sense to highlight the potential for wet weather, because predicting sun but getting rain is perceived as worse than predicting rain and ending up with sun.
強調陰雨天氣的可能性仍然是有道理的，因為預測晴天結果下雨，被認為比預測下雨結果晴天更糟糕。
In practice, the Fed is sure to be flexible, reacting to economic data.
在實踐中，美聯儲肯定會靈活行事，對經濟數據做出反應。
It can look north of the American border for an example of the impossibility of maintaining a fixed policy stance.
它可以把目光投向美國邊境以北，那里有不可能保持固定政策立場的例子。
The Bank of Canada had stopped its rate-rise cycle in January, thinking that inflation had crested.
加拿大銀行在一月份停止了加息周期，認為通貨膨脹已經達到頂峰。
But in June it was forced to resume tightening because economic growth had remained too hot, and inflation too sticky, for comfort.
但在6月份，加拿大銀行被迫重新收緊政策，因為經濟增長仍然過熱，通脹仍然過于頑固，令人不快。
Ultimately, though, there are no risk-free choices for the Fed.
歸根結底，美聯儲并不存在無風險的選擇。
What is seen as the more doveish option—holding rates steady for the rest of this year—will in fact take on an increasingly hawkish hue if inflation does continue to recede.
如果通脹真的持續回落，被視為較為溫和的選擇--在今年剩余時間內保持利率不變--實際上將呈現出越來越強硬的色彩。
Unchanged nominal rates would be ever more restrictive in real terms (assuming that inflationary expectations diminish alongside waning price pressures).
保持不變的名義利率將實際上變得更有抑制性(假設通脹預期逐漸降低，同時價格壓力也逐漸減弱)。
In such a scenario central bankers wishing to maintain their current policy stance should therefore think about cutting rates.
在這種情況下，希望維持當前政策立場的央行官員應該考慮降息。
When inflation was sky-high, the Fed’s task was tough yet its decisions quite straightforward: officials did not really have much choice but to raise rates.
當通脹處于極高水平時，美聯儲的任務艱巨，但其決定非常直截了當：官員們除了加息之外真的沒有多少選擇。
From here on, its task looks easier but its decisions more fraught.
從這之后，美聯儲的任務看起來更容易，但決定更引人擔憂。
